The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) announced the second quarter of 2020 gross domestic product (GDP) figure was minus 12.2%, mainly due to the city shutdown to curb the COVID outbreak – 19 Point is still less negative than during the Tom Yam Kung crisis

Thosaporn Sirisamphan, secretary-general NESDB, said in a press conference today (17 Aug) that GDP in the second quarter (Mar.-Jun) of this year continued to decline from 2.0% in Q1 and expect the full-year GDP forecast to be negative 7.5%.

Mr. Tossaporn said This decline in GDP was less than it was during the 1997 Tom Yum Goong economic crisis, which was negative 12.5%.

Whether the private consumption, investment or foreign trade sector All negative ones As a result of the city shutdown due to the outbreak of COVID Including from trade war and drought There was only one factor supporting the situation, namely consumption and public investment, ”said NESDB secretary, adding that the manufacturing sector in all sectors had all expanded as well. The industry. Tourism, hotels and agriculture

Nathana reveals GDP for the whole year 2019 has grown 2.4% while the fourth quarter grows the lowest in 5 years, Koh Samui on the day without foreigners, lack of income, hopes Thai people help stimulate the MPC. The policy rate cut by 0.25% because of the coronavirus disease stumbling and drought.

The prime minister said this year to grow 3.3-3.8%, but the private sector sees the corona and the budget lag will make it grow below 2.5%.

As for the approach to economic recovery, NESDB secretary said that it must focus on export drives. Solving the problem of drought through water management Accelerate the disbursement of the government budget to meet the target. And must prevent a second outbreak of COVID-19.

And the last one I wouldn’t say, I would not say, I have to maintain the political climate. Because if there are political factors There will be more chaos and problems will aggravate the economy during this time, “said Mr. Tossaporn.
4.2 hundred thousand workers in the system were laid off.

For the unemployment rate NESDB found that the number of employed persons decreased from the same quarter of 2019 by approximately 7 hundred thousand people, both within and outside the agricultural sector.

When looking at only the workers in the system About 4.2 lakh people were found to be laid off, with the remaining 1.7-1.8 million at risk of being laid off due to work in COVID-19-affected establishments. And unable to operate normally
“(Labor at risk of being laid off) this 1.7 million people if the economic situation improves. There is an open city Establishments can be launched The number of people who will be laid off may decrease, ”said Thosaporn.
Accommodation branch – how is the investment?

The NESDB report indicated a 50.2% drop in production in the accommodation and food service sectors, mainly due to the COVID-19 outbreak. And promulgation of the Public Administration Act in emergency situations Closure of immigration checkpoints throughout the country And announced the prohibition of aircraft from flying into the country As a result, there were no tourists entering Thailand in this quarter. Only 5.6 million people visited Thailand, compared with 52.3 million in the previous quarter.

Investment fell 8.0% continued from a 6.5% decline in Q1 / 2020, with private investment falling 15.0% compared to a 5.4% decline in the previous quarter. Government investment expanded by 12.5%, accelerating from a 9.3% decline in the previous quarter.

 

COVID-19 made many ASEAN economies into recession.
Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak It had an impact on the economy, especially in the second quarter, which led many countries into technical recession. And some countries are considered the lowest in decades

Bloomberg news agency reported on Friday that Malaysia’s central bank had to cut its forecast for economic growth this year lower than previously forecast. The GDP in the second quarter of the past was the lowest in two decades after the Tom Yam Kung crisis of past.

 

The Malaysian central bank reported a 17.1% drop in the second quarter of the same period last year. It was considered the worst since the last quarter of 1998 due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Exports were affected by the disruption in the supply chain. While consumer spending has also decreased due to city shutdown measures.

Overall this year The Malaysian central bank expects full-year economic growth to be 3.5% – 5.5%.
While the Straits Times of Singapore, the official Singapore GDP figures for the second quarter were also negative, with 13.2% lowering, bringing Singapore into the first technical recession in 11 years and will also contribute to the overall picture of the economy this year. Singapore was 5-7% negative, worsening the previous forecast of 4-7%, and affecting employment conditions as well.

 

The Nikkei Asian Review website reports that the Philippines is also entering a technical recession in the second quarter of this year. After the GDP was negative 16.5% as a result of city shutdown measures to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. And this makes the overall picture of the year worse than the previous forecast to negative 5.5%.

Jakarta Post Indonesia website It reported that the GDP of the second quarter of the nations with the largest economy in ASEAN was not different, with a negative 5.32% compared to the same period last year. It is considered the lowest since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, while the government expects the GDP growth of between 0.4-1%.

Vietnam’s economy was also affected by COVID-19, Reuters reported. GDP in the second quarter was still 0.36% growth compared to the same period last year. Considered the lowest growth rate In at least 30 years, however, the country’s economic outlook remains positive given the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts. Stating that the whole year, Vietnam will still see a 2.7 percent economic growth rate.

IMF expects Thai economy to grow the lowest in ASEAN. If compared with the overall economic growth rate with countries in the ASEAN region. International Monetary Fund data states that Thailand is expected to have the lowest growth rate in this region. With a negative GDP growth rate of 7.7%, Vietnam is the country with a positive growth rate of 2.7%, along with the other three countries: Myanmar (1.8%), Brunei (1.3%) and Laos (0.7%). Countries with negative growth rates aside from Thailand include Indonesia (-0.3%), Cambodia (-1.6%), Singapore (-3.5%), Philippines (-3.6%), and Malaysia (-3.8%).

 

Cr. bbc.com/thai/thailand-53795239

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